Coronavirus: 10 reasons why you don't need to panic

Regardless of whether we consider the new coronavirus to be a pandemic or not, this is a serious issue. In less than two months, this outbreak has spread to various continents. Pandemic means the continuous and consistent transmission of disease, simultaneously in more than three different geographical regions. Pandemic does not mean how deadly a virus is but rather its distribution and geographical addition. What we definitely get is a fear pandemic. Media from all over the world fixated on coronavirus.

There has been deep thought and mass planning for the worst-case scenarios. And of course, the impact has spread from the world of global health into politics and business. But of course, it’s also true that we shouldn’t panic. It would be wrong to say that there is good news from COVID-19, but there is reason to be optimistic because there might be a way to ward off and defeat this virus. And lessons that can be used for the future.

1. We already know the disease

The first cases of AIDS occurred in June 1981 and it took more than two years to find out the virus (HIV) that caused the disease. For COVID-19, severe cases of pneumonia were reported in China on 31 December 2019 and on 7 January 2020, the virus was successfully identified. The viral genome was available on the tenth day.

We already know that there is a new coronavirus from group 2B, from the same virus family as SARS we call SARS-CoV-2. This disease is called COVID-19. Previously thought to be related to coronavirus originating from bats, genetic analysis has confirmed that there are new natural proposals (between late November and early December) and that, although viruses live with mutations, the mutation rate is unlikely to be too high.

2. The situation has improved in China

Strong control and isolation measures from China have paid off. For the past few weeks, the number of cases diagnosed every day has decreased. Further detailed epidemiology is being carried out in other countries; the spread of epidemics is very specific in some areas, which makes it easier to control.

3. 80% of cases are mild

The disease is asymptomatic or mild/medium in 81% of cases. Of course, 14% can cause severe pneumonia and 5% can be critical or even fatal. But it’s still unclear how the death rate will be. It could be lower than the current estimate.

4. The virus can be wiped clean

The virus can be effectively killed from surfaces by using ethanol (62-71% alcohol), hydrogen peroxide (0.5% hydrogen peroxide) or sodium hypochlorite (0.1% bleach), in just a minute. Washing hands frequently with soap and water is also the most effective way to avoid transmission.

5. We know how to detect the virus

Since January 13, 2020, a test to detect the virus has been available.

6. Science is deepening it throughout the world

Now is the age of international scientists working together. In only a month, 164 articles can be accessed on PubMed for COVID-19 or SARS-Cov-2, as well as many articles that have not been reviewed. They are preliminary studies on vaccines, treatment, epidemiology, genetic and phylogeny, diagnoses, clinical aspects, and others.

These articles were written by around 700 authors and distributed throughout the world. This is cooperative science, free to share. In 2003, when the SARS epidemic took more than a year and a half to reach half the number of articles. Plus, most scientific journals have made free publications for access to coronavirus topics.

7. Symptoms are less visible to children

Only 3% of cases occur in people under 20 years, and the mortality rate for those under 40 years is 0.2%. Symptoms are less visible in children so they can go undetected.

8. There is already a vaccine prototype

Our ability to make a new vaccine is very spectacular. There are already eight projects in progress to find a new coronavirus vaccine. There are groups that work on vaccination projects for similar viruses. The vaccine group from the University of Queensland in Australia has announced that they are already working on a prototype using a technique called “molecular clamp”, an amazing technology. This is just an example that can make vaccine production in the future faster. This vaccine prototype will soon be tested on humans.

9. Many people get well around the world

Many data show an increase in the number of positive cases and the number of deaths, but most infected can recover. There are 13 times more cases of recovery than death, and this proportion increases.

10. An antivirus trial is ongoing

The vaccine is useful for preventing. Nowadays, treating people who are already sick is important. There are more than 80 clinical trials that analyze coronavirus treatment. This is an antivirus that has been used for other infections, which have been approved and proven safe. One of the anti-viruses that have been tested in humans is redelivering, a broad-spectrum anti-virus that is still in research that has been tested against Ebola and SARS/MERS.

Another candidate is chloroquine, an anti-malaria which also has great strength against viruses. We know that chloroquine blocks viral infections by increasing the endosome pH, which is needed when the virus fuses/join cells, thus blocking its entry. This content has been shown to block coronavirus in vitro (outside living organisms) and has been used for patients with coronavirus pneumonia.

Other experiments are based on the use of oseltamivir (which is used to fight influenza viruses), interferon-1b (a protein with anti-viral function), antiserum from people who have recovered or monoclonal antibodies to neutralize the virus. New therapies have been proposed involving barrier substances such as baricitinib in, which is chosen by artificial intelligence (AI).

The 1918 flu pandemic caused the death of 25 million people in less than 25 weeks. Will we experience the same thing? It does not seem; our preparations have never been this good in fighting a pandemic.