In Spain, about 250,000 confirmed cases and 25,000 deaths have been reported. Given the limited availability of diagnostic tests for a long time, it is estimated that the actual figures should be much more.

In New York, where the outbreak of cases came two weeks behind Madrid, a preliminary survey of a representative sample of 3,000 citizens has found that 14% of New Yorkers had antibodies.

That means that one in 7 citizens had already passed it, many of them asymptomatic. This figure was 22% in Manhattan, where collapse situations in hospitals similar to those of Madrid were experienced.

After long confinement, the de-escalation is about to start. Although it is foreseeable that it will be accompanied by a second wave of COVID-19, it will never have the virulence of the first. It will be much less intense and longer.

Back to work? Sooner than later

Home confinement and physical isolation have proven to be highly effective measures in reducing the rate of infection. But they cannot last beyond 4-6 weeks. Especially for the economic, mental, and social consequences.

This implies that the acceleration of the return to work seems inevitable, among other things due to the economic urgency in many families. The reopening of schools also seems foreseeable in the coming weeks, given that many parents would not be able to go to work without someone to take care of their school-age children.

Furthermore, Coronavirus is asymptomatic or has few manifestations in most children and young people.

In this de-escalation, antibody tests can help identify those with immunity and can safely return. However, in many work sectors, more than 80% of employees will continue to be negative for the antibodies and will continue to be susceptible to infection.

Some groups are different, such as healthcare personnel, where more than 30% could have already been exposed to many large cities, such as Madrid and Barcelona.

With these figures on the table, it seems that the antibody test would be of little help at this time since many will continue to be susceptible and at risk of contagion. What alternatives do we have then to prioritize a return to work without risks? Basically two: age and the presence of other chronic diseases (diabetes, obesity, kidney, heart or lung diseases, etc.).

Those over 60 years old or with these other pathologies should be the last to rejoin companies because they are those who are at greater risk of suffering serious forms of Coronavirus.

These criteria were already proven effective at the beginning of the epidemic to prioritize the staggered closure of companies, with stratification of employees in essentials (few), on-demand, rotating, and directly at home with telework.

In all cases, companies must ensure that the new protection measures (masks, frequent hand washing, etc.), the interpersonal distance of 1.5 meters at work stations, and suspension of meetings in closed rooms are complied with.

Back to vacation? Later than soon

Regarding vacation, on the contrary, everything points to the fear of a second wave of cases and a rebound of the COVID-19 will slow down the shows, the mass celebrations, the congresses, the popular celebrations, the opening of restaurants, the displacements, national and, above all, international travel.

For Spaniards, accustomed to “closing” in August, it is foreseeable that the distribution of vacations will adopt a more Anglo-Saxon model, with shorter periods distributed throughout the year and at different times each family.

The second wave of COVID-19, which, predictably, will accompany the exit from home confinement, will not have the virulence of the first wave of the tsunami. The health services are now more prepared and the new cases will be better attended, without collapses in the emergency room, with more hospital beds and intensive care beds.

In addition, many doctors and nurses are now available again, after overcoming illness and/or quarantine. There is another favorable factor and it is the drastic drop in the number of active cases that can be a source of infection since Coronavirus is a disease that generally self-limits in 7-10 days.

Coronavirus may go down, but the risk of new pandemics

We enter a new post-COVID-19 era. The high population density in some regions of the planet, the poor personal and social hygiene, together with the close coexistence with domestic and wild animals in China and other countries, are the three main determining factors of future zoonoses. They are the breeding ground for a virus to “jump” from the animal reservoir to humans and cause another pandemic like the one we are suffering from.

In this 21st century, we already had warnings in 2002 (SARS) and in 2012 (MERS). The new coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, is much more transmissible, and also even during the incubation phase before symptoms develop. And although its lethality is less, it can affect the entire population, since there is no previous immunity.

The tragic number of lives lost in two months has been more the result of inadequate medical care than high virus virulence. The best hope is to put it in a protective vaccine, although it is unlikely that we will have it before Christmas.

The post Will it is Possible the Second Wave of Coronavirus Come? appeared first on What Insider.

We have studied the information published by COMTRADE, a database managed by the United Nations which tracks bilateral trade for nearly 200 countries and 5,000 product categories. Some categories are larger than the specific products for which we wanted information, but they have the advantage of providing internationally comparable data.

Masks for Doctors and professional workers

Masks for healthcare professionals, such as the now-famous N95 masks, are essential in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, but those used in Canada are generally imported. In the COMTRADE data, they are found in the categories “breathing apparatus and gas masks” and “protective masks without mechanism”.

In 2018, Canada imported approximately $ 126 million and exported masks for professionals for $ 54 million. Of these, 90% were from the United States. This figure includes direct exports to Canada of masks produced in the United States and re-exports of masks made in other countries that transit through the United States.

Canada imports these masks from a handful of countries, which explains the concern of our authorities when President Trump threatened to curb exports of these products. The U.S. and Canada have finally reached an agreement that maintains the mask trade, but the Trump administration’s unpredictable decisions may affect other essential goods in the future.

Covid-19 Products

The WTO recently published a list of essential products in the fight against coronavirus. We tracked 75 of these products in COMTRADE data. Let’s call them “Covid-19 products”. In Canada, Covid-19 products represented 3.9% of total imports in 2018, compared to 5.8% in the United States. In this list, there are drugs, immunological products, medical, surgical or dental instruments and plastic products, among which, certain types of masks. The list of imports of Covid-19 products differs from country to country, reflecting the different production structures.

If we focus on the trade balance (the difference between exports and imports), the two countries had a trade deficit with the rest of the world – more imports than exports – for Covid-19 products in 2018. Many Covid-19 products are traded bilaterally between the United States and Canada. In 2018, 54% of all Canadian imports of Covid-19 products came from the United States, while Canada represented only 6% of American imports of these same products. Overall, Canada has registered a trade deficit with the United States for these products (although this is not the case when considering all manufactured goods).

Canada’s dependence on the United States is not limited to masks for professionals. Over 75% of Canadian imports for 32 Covid-19 products are from the United States. Some of these products are only rarely exported by Canada, which suggests that the country could not easily replace foreign supply with domestic production. Among these products are drugs containing penicillin, photographic plates, and films for x-rays, laboratory, hygienic or pharmaceutical glassware, syringes, needles, and catheters.

On the other hand, there are only four Covid-19 products (hydrogen peroxide, often used as an antiseptic, certain type of drugs that contain antibiotics or vitamins and soaps) for which at least 30% American imports come from Canada. Given its dependence on a large number of Covid-19 products, Canada cannot afford to escalate trade hostilities with the United States. However, the situation may not be as grim as the figures seem to suggest.

Masks in public

When they start reopening, various governments may continue to recommend that citizens wear the mask in stores or on public transportation. Canada, and Quebec in particular, has a strong textile industry that could easily produce masks. Canada is also a major supplier of certain products needed to fight coronavirus in the United States, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently noted.

Among them is the red cedar pulp used to make medical gowns and masks, which is mainly produced by Harmac Pacific in British Columbia. COMTRADE data also shows that Canada supplies certain products to the United States, which are not much exported and rarely produced. These include antibiotics other than penicillin, sterilizers for medical, surgical, or laboratory use as well as electrocardiographs.

In times of crisis, it is easier to ensure rapid deliveries, when necessary, with geographically close business partners and with whom we have a relationship of trust. For these reasons, maintaining harmonious relations between Canada and the United States is important for both countries.

Although the controversy surrounding the 3M masks was quickly resolved, this episode remains an eloquent illustration of the need for Canada to find compromises with its neighbor to the south regarding trade in Coronavirus products.

The post Why Canada needs the United States to fight Coronavirus appeared first on What Insider.

Coronavirus Impact On Global Economy

The Stock market in the US  and around the world are already facing slow down due to coronavirus and the US-China trade war. In last month the USA stock market NASDAQ fall almost 7%  this is a huge point drop. The US investor loses billions of dollars in just one month. Trump Government so far takes some steps to hand the situation. The US Senate passes an $8.3 billion emergency coronavirus bill for vaccine research and buying coronavirus testing kits. Morgan Stanley already forecasts the US GDP growth expecting to fall by 2.3% before recovering to 3.1% in the following six months, boosted by incentive from governments and central banks.

China’s largest stock market Shanghai Stock Exchange falling approx 2 percent makes the worst month in chine history. All major manufacturing company remains close in china that’s hit the Chinese economy so badly. If the Chinese business rate stays at 20 of normal rates the effects on the USA’s growth will be big. A company like Apple manufacturing based in China, for now, close due to coronavirus. Microsoft also complaining of insufficient computer hardware. In china more, than 17 banks are shut down their operations Due to coronavirus. Company and investors withdraw their money from china and sift there new manufacturing hub in other Asian countries. Many companies in the tourism and aviation industries have reported a loss due to a travel ban.

Coronavirus is forecast Could Cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion. Analysts claim the fast-spreading deadly virus could also be a wake-up call for countries that are too heavily reliant on China. The virus’s most frightening impact is perhaps on the world economy with oxford economists warning it could knock 3 percent of global growth this year. GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) economies are particularly exposed to leading airlines like Emirates, Etihad Airways, and flydubai restricting travel and flights.

The virus which in fact came just a few months after the research by Colliers International predicted the number of Chinese tourists traveling to the GCC would increase by 54 percent from 1.4 million in 2018 to 2.2 million in 2023. The UAE where Chinese visitors are currently the second and fourth highest ranked source markets for Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively may be the hardest hit. Chinese tourists are also the world’s highest spender while traveling abroad with total adventure and tourism expenditure reaching $277 billion in 2018 according to colleague’s data. They were expected to generate an estimated $3.48 billion in travel and tourism revenue by 2023 which by the way is an increase of 71 percent when compared with figures from 2018.

Coronavirus Emergency Bill

On Thursday the Senate passed an $8.3 billion emergency funding bill to combat the Outbreak of the deadly coronavirus. In the USA more than 1,629 total cases and Total deaths are 41 until now confirmed. Washington and New York have been the hardest-hit state in the country. The emergency funding bill already signed by President Donald Trump in the white house. Only two Republican Senators voted against the subsidiary aid bill. The $8.3 billion emergency funding Bill cruised through the House a day sooner in a 415-2 vote. The Senate leader agreed on the bill.

Here’s how the $8.3 billion measures break’s down:

• More than $3 billion dedicated to the research and development of vaccines, as well as therapeutics and diagnostics.
• $2.2 billion in public health funding to aid in prevention, preparedness and response efforts.
• Nearly $1 billion will go toward for procurement of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.
• $1.25 billion to help protect Americans who living oversea from the coronavirus.
• $435 million to support health systems overseas to prevent, prepare, and respond to the coronavirus.
• $300 million to respond to humanitarian needs.
• $61 million to facilitate the development and review of medical countermeasures to keep up with potential shortages.

W.H.O Declared Coronavirus Become a Pandemic

The virus now reaching at least 105 countries and territories infecting more than 129,000 and killing more than 5,300. The World Health Organization’s saying the threat of a pandemic has become very real. But it also said it would be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled. Director-general dr. Ted Rose noting the actions of governments businesses communities and individuals can make a difference and we are seeing more stark actions being taken around the globe. In Italy now the hardest-hit country outside China a lockdown extended to all of its 60 million citizens. There is now a decline in new cases being reported from South Korea.

“We’re encouraged that Italy is taking some aggressive measures to contain its epidemic, and we hope that those measures prove effective in the coming few days. Let hope to be the antidote to fear. Let solidarity be the antidote to blame. Let our shared humanity be the antidote to our shared threat,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the W.H.O.’s director-general.

Some epidemiologists warning the USA is not taking the virus seriously enough. The University of Minnesota’s dr. Mike Osterholm said on Squawk Box this morning. The country is responding as if the virus is a quote DC blizzard that will pass in a few days. He thinks in fact we’re entering a coronavirus winter and were only in the first weeks. The CDC yesterday stepping up its warnings particularly to high-risk groups older people and those with underlying health conditions. Meanwhile, Vice President Mike Pence plans to meet with executives in the health insurance industry. Many have said the waive co-pays for coronavirus testing and are expanding access to telemedicine.

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